Data / Consumers' expected inflation, one year ahead (median) / United States

Consumers' expected inflation, one year ahead (median) in United States

Consumers' expected inflation, one year ahead (median) in the United States was 3.9% in September 2026, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. That is up 0.5 pts from September 2025.

September 20263.9%
Change on September 2025+0.5 pts
Series high6.8June 2022
Series low2.3October 2019

Next release: Wednesday, 11 November 2026, estimated by Invokely from past publication dates (low confidence), not announced by the publisher. Release calendar

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Consumers' expected inflation, one year ahead (median) in United States, June 2013 to September 2026

2345672013-062015-052017-042019-032021-022023-012024-122026-092013-06: 3.1 %2013-07: 3.2 %2013-08: 3.4 %2013-09: 3.4 %2013-10: 3.2 %2013-11: 3.2 %2013-12: 3.1 %2014-01: 3 %2014-02: 3.1 %2014-03: 3.2 %2014-04: 3.3 %2014-05: 3.2 %2014-06: 3.2 %2014-07: 3.1 %2014-08: 3 %2014-09: 3 %2014-10: 3 %2014-11: 3 %2014-12: 3 %2015-01: 2.9 %2015-02: 2.8 %2015-03: 2.9 %2015-04: 2.7 %2015-05: 3 %2015-06: 3 %2015-07: 3 %2015-08: 2.8 %2015-09: 2.7 %2015-10: 2.8 %2015-11: 2.6 %2015-12: 2.5 %2016-01: 2.4 %2016-02: 2.7 %2016-03: 2.5 %2016-04: 2.6 %2016-05: 2.6 %2016-06: 2.5 %2016-07: 2.5 %2016-08: 2.8 %2016-09: 2.5 %2016-10: 2.6 %2016-11: 2.5 %2016-12: 2.8 %2017-01: 3 %2017-02: 3 %2017-03: 2.7 %2017-04: 2.8 %2017-05: 2.6 %2017-06: 2.5 %2017-07: 2.5 %2017-08: 2.5 %2017-09: 2.5 %2017-10: 2.6 %2017-11: 2.6 %2017-12: 2.8 %2018-01: 2.7 %2018-02: 2.8 %2018-03: 2.8 %2018-04: 3 %2018-05: 3 %2018-06: 3 %2018-07: 3 %2018-08: 3 %2018-09: 3 %2018-10: 3 %2018-11: 3 %2018-12: 3 %2019-01: 3 %2019-02: 2.8 %2019-03: 2.8 %2019-04: 2.6 %2019-05: 2.5 %2019-06: 2.7 %2019-07: 2.6 %2019-08: 2.4 %2019-09: 2.5 %2019-10: 2.3 %2019-11: 2.3 %2019-12: 2.5 %2020-01: 2.5 %2020-02: 2.5 %2020-03: 2.5 %2020-04: 2.6 %2020-05: 3 %2020-06: 2.7 %2020-07: 2.9 %2020-08: 3 %2020-09: 3 %2020-10: 2.8 %2020-11: 3 %2020-12: 3 %2021-01: 3 %2021-02: 3.1 %2021-03: 3.2 %2021-04: 3.4 %2021-05: 4 %2021-06: 4.8 %2021-07: 4.8 %2021-08: 5.2 %2021-09: 5.3 %2021-10: 5.7 %2021-11: 6 %2021-12: 6 %2022-01: 5.8 %2022-02: 6 %2022-03: 6.6 %2022-04: 6.3 %2022-05: 6.6 %2022-06: 6.8 %2022-07: 6.2 %2022-08: 5.7 %2022-09: 5.4 %2022-10: 5.9 %2022-11: 5.2 %2022-12: 5 %2023-01: 5 %2023-02: 4.2 %2023-03: 4.7 %2023-04: 4.4 %2023-05: 4.1 %2023-06: 3.8 %2023-07: 3.5 %2023-08: 3.6 %2023-09: 3.7 %2023-10: 3.6 %2023-11: 3.4 %2023-12: 3 %2024-01: 3 %2024-02: 3 %2024-03: 3 %2024-04: 3.3 %2024-05: 3.2 %2024-06: 3 %2024-07: 3 %2024-08: 3 %2024-09: 3 %2024-10: 2.9 %2024-11: 3 %2024-12: 3 %2025-01: 3 %2025-02: 3.1 %2025-03: 3.6 %2025-04: 3.6 %2025-05: 3.2 %2025-06: 3 %2025-07: 3.1 %2025-08: 3.2 %2025-09: 3.4 %2025-10: 3.2 %2025-11: 3.2 %2025-12: 3.4 %2026-01: 3.1 %2026-02: 3 %2026-03: 3.4 %2026-04: 3.6 %2026-05: 3.5 %2026-06: 3.7 %2026-07: 3.6 %2026-08: 3.6 %2026-09: 3.9 %24682013-062017-122022-062026-092026-09: 3.9 %
%. Source: New York Fed. Retrieved 2026-10-12, published 2026-10-12.
All 160 values
Period%
2026-093.9
2026-083.6
2026-073.6
2026-063.7
2026-053.5
2026-043.6
2026-033.4
2026-023
2026-013.1
2025-123.4
2025-113.2
2025-103.2
2025-093.4
2025-083.2
2025-073.1
2025-063
2025-053.2
2025-043.6
2025-033.6
2025-023.1
2025-013
2024-123
2024-113
2024-102.9
2024-093
2024-083
2024-073
2024-063
2024-053.2
2024-043.3
2024-033
2024-023
2024-013
2023-123
2023-113.4
2023-103.6
2023-093.7
2023-083.6
2023-073.5
2023-063.8
2023-054.1
2023-044.4
2023-034.7
2023-024.2
2023-015
2022-125
2022-115.2
2022-105.9
2022-095.4
2022-085.7
2022-076.2
2022-066.8
2022-056.6
2022-046.3
2022-036.6
2022-026
2022-015.8
2021-126
2021-116
2021-105.7
2021-095.3
2021-085.2
2021-074.8
2021-064.8
2021-054
2021-043.4
2021-033.2
2021-023.1
2021-013
2020-123
2020-113
2020-102.8
2020-093
2020-083
2020-072.9
2020-062.7
2020-053
2020-042.6
2020-032.5
2020-022.5
2020-012.5
2019-122.5
2019-112.3
2019-102.3
2019-092.5
2019-082.4
2019-072.6
2019-062.7
2019-052.5
2019-042.6
2019-032.8
2019-022.8
2019-013
2018-123
2018-113
2018-103
2018-093
2018-083
2018-073
2018-063
2018-053
2018-043
2018-032.8
2018-022.8
2018-012.7
2017-122.8
2017-112.6
2017-102.6
2017-092.5
2017-082.5
2017-072.5
2017-062.5
2017-052.6
2017-042.8
2017-032.7
2017-023
2017-013
2016-122.8
2016-112.5
2016-102.6
2016-092.5
2016-082.8
2016-072.5
2016-062.5
2016-052.6
2016-042.6
2016-032.5
2016-022.7
2016-012.4
2015-122.5
2015-112.6
2015-102.8
2015-092.7
2015-082.8
2015-073
2015-063
2015-053
2015-042.7
2015-032.9
2015-022.8
2015-012.9
2014-123
2014-113
2014-103
2014-093
2014-083
2014-073.1
2014-063.2
2014-053.2
2014-043.3
2014-033.2
2014-023.1
2014-013
2013-123.1
2013-113.2
2013-103.2
2013-093.4
2013-083.4
2013-073.2
2013-063.1

Definition

Median inflation rate that US consumers expect over the next 12 months, in percent, from the answers to the survey month. Each respondent gives a probability distribution over future inflation; the figure is the median, across respondents, of the mean of each distribution (the separate point forecasts are not used).

Federal Reserve Bank of New York Survey of Consumer Expectations, a monthly online survey of a rotating panel of about 1,300 US household heads. The median of the answers, so half of respondents expect more and half less. These are what consumers expect, not a forecast by the New York Fed. The New York Fed does not endorse this use of the data.

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How to cite

Source: Survey of Consumer Expectations, © 2013-2026 Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY). The SCE data are available without charge at http://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/sce and may be used subject to license terms posted there. FRBNY disclaims any responsibility for this analysis and interpretation of Survey of Consumer Expectations data. Survey of Consumer Expectations data (frbny-sce-data.xlsx), sheet Inflation expectations, median one-year ahead expected inflation rate. https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/interactives/sce/sce/downloads/data/frbny-sce-data.xlsx. Retrieved 2026-10-12. Terms: https://www.newyorkfed.org/privacy/termsofuse.

Citation styles

The publisher is the author. Invokely is named only as the place the figures were read, where a style asks for it.

APA 7

Federal Reserve Bank of New York. (2026). Survey of Consumer Expectations data (frbny-sce-data.xlsx), sheet Inflation expectations, median one-year ahead expected inflation rate (Consumers' expected inflation, one year ahead (median), United States, 2013-06 to 2026-09) [Data set]. Retrieved October 12, 2026, from https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/interactives/sce/sce/downloads/data/frbny-sce-data.xlsx

MLA 9

Survey of Consumer Expectations data (frbny-sce-data.xlsx), sheet Inflation expectations, median one-year ahead expected inflation rate, Consumers' expected inflation, one year ahead (median), United States, 2013-06 to 2026-09. Federal Reserve Bank of New York, 12 Oct. 2026, https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/interactives/sce/sce/downloads/data/frbny-sce-data.xlsx. Invokely, https://invokely.ai/en/consumer-inflation-expectations-1-year/united-states. Accessed 12 Oct. 2026.

Chicago (author-date)

Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 2026. Survey of Consumer Expectations data (frbny-sce-data.xlsx), sheet Inflation expectations, median one-year ahead expected inflation rate. Consumers' expected inflation, one year ahead (median), United States, 2013-06 to 2026-09. Dataset. Accessed October 12, 2026. https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/interactives/sce/sce/downloads/data/frbny-sce-data.xlsx. Also distributed by Invokely, https://invokely.ai/en/consumer-inflation-expectations-1-year/united-states.

Harvard

Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2026) Survey of Consumer Expectations data (frbny-sce-data.xlsx), sheet Inflation expectations, median one-year ahead expected inflation rate, Consumers' expected inflation, one year ahead (median), United States, 2013-06 to 2026-09 [Dataset]. Available at: https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/interactives/sce/sce/downloads/data/frbny-sce-data.xlsx, via Invokely: https://invokely.ai/en/consumer-inflation-expectations-1-year/united-states (Accessed: 12 October 2026).

BibTeX
@misc{federal_consumers_expected_inflation_one_2026,
  author = {{Federal Reserve Bank of New York}},
  title = {{Survey of Consumer Expectations data (frbny-sce-data.xlsx), sheet Inflation expectations, median one-year ahead expected inflation rate: Consumers' expected inflation, one year ahead (median), United States, 2013-06 to 2026-09}},
  year = {2026},
  howpublished = {Data set},
  url = {https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/interactives/sce/sce/downloads/data/frbny-sce-data.xlsx},
  urldate = {2026-10-12},
  note = {Accessed via Invokely, https://invokely.ai/en/consumer-inflation-expectations-1-year/united-states. Publisher attribution: Source: Survey of Consumer Expectations, © 2013-2026 Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY). The SCE data are available without charge at http://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/sce and may be used subject to license terms posted there. FRBNY disclaims any responsibility for this analysis and interpretation of Survey of Consumer Expectations data. Survey of Consumer Expectations data (frbny-sce-data.xlsx), sheet Inflation expectations, median one-year ahead expected inflation rate. https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/interactives/sce/sce/downloads/data/frbny-sce-data.xlsx. Retrieved 2026-10-12. Terms: https://www.newyorkfed.org/privacy/termsofuse.},
}
RIS
TY  - DATA
AU  - Federal Reserve Bank of New York
TI  - Survey of Consumer Expectations data (frbny-sce-data.xlsx), sheet Inflation expectations, median one-year ahead expected inflation rate: Consumers' expected inflation, one year ahead (median), United States, 2013-06 to 2026-09
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/10/12
PB  - Federal Reserve Bank of New York
DB  - Invokely
UR  - https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/interactives/sce/sce/downloads/data/frbny-sce-data.xlsx
L2  - https://invokely.ai/en/consumer-inflation-expectations-1-year/united-states
Y2  - 2026/10/12
N1  - Accessed via Invokely, https://invokely.ai/en/consumer-inflation-expectations-1-year/united-states.
N1  - Publisher attribution: Source: Survey of Consumer Expectations, © 2013-2026 Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY). The SCE data are available without charge at http://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/sce and may be used subject to license terms posted there. FRBNY disclaims any responsibility for this analysis and interpretation of Survey of Consumer Expectations data. Survey of Consumer Expectations data (frbny-sce-data.xlsx), sheet Inflation expectations, median one-year ahead expected inflation rate. https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/interactives/sce/sce/downloads/data/frbny-sce-data.xlsx. Retrieved 2026-10-12. Terms: https://www.newyorkfed.org/privacy/termsofuse.
ER  -
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Questions

What is the consumers' expected inflation, one year ahead (median) in United States?

Consumers' expected inflation, one year ahead (median) in the United States was 3.9% in September 2026, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. That is up 0.5 pts from September 2025.

Where does this figure come from?

Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Survey of Consumer Expectations data (frbny-sce-data.xlsx), sheet Inflation expectations, median one-year ahead expected inflation rate. Retrieved by Invokely on 2026-10-12.

What was the highest consumers' expected inflation, one year ahead (median) in United States?

6.8% in June 2022, the highest value since June 2013 in this series.

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