Data / Consumers' expected inflation, three years ahead (median) / United States

Consumers' expected inflation, three years ahead (median) in United States

Consumers' expected inflation, three years ahead (median) in the United States was 3.3% in September 2026, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. That is up 0.2 pts from September 2025.

September 20263.3%
Change on September 2025+0.2 pts
Series high4.2October 2021
Series low2.3July 2024

Next release: Wednesday, 11 November 2026, estimated by Invokely from past publication dates (low confidence), not announced by the publisher. Release calendar

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Consumers' expected inflation, three years ahead (median) in United States, June 2013 to September 2026

22.533.544.52013-062015-052017-042019-032021-022023-012024-122026-092013-06: 3.4 %2013-07: 3.3 %2013-08: 3.8 %2013-09: 3.5 %2013-10: 3.2 %2013-11: 3.3 %2013-12: 3.3 %2014-01: 3 %2014-02: 3.2 %2014-03: 3.4 %2014-04: 3.2 %2014-05: 3.2 %2014-06: 3.3 %2014-07: 3.2 %2014-08: 3.1 %2014-09: 3 %2014-10: 3 %2014-11: 3 %2014-12: 3 %2015-01: 3 %2015-02: 3 %2015-03: 2.9 %2015-04: 3 %2015-05: 3 %2015-06: 3 %2015-07: 3 %2015-08: 2.9 %2015-09: 2.8 %2015-10: 2.8 %2015-11: 2.7 %2015-12: 2.8 %2016-01: 2.5 %2016-02: 2.6 %2016-03: 2.5 %2016-04: 2.8 %2016-05: 2.7 %2016-06: 2.9 %2016-07: 2.5 %2016-08: 2.7 %2016-09: 2.6 %2016-10: 2.6 %2016-11: 2.7 %2016-12: 2.8 %2017-01: 2.9 %2017-02: 3 %2017-03: 2.7 %2017-04: 2.9 %2017-05: 2.5 %2017-06: 2.8 %2017-07: 2.7 %2017-08: 2.6 %2017-09: 2.8 %2017-10: 2.8 %2017-11: 2.8 %2017-12: 2.9 %2018-01: 2.8 %2018-02: 2.9 %2018-03: 2.9 %2018-04: 3 %2018-05: 3 %2018-06: 3 %2018-07: 2.9 %2018-08: 3 %2018-09: 3 %2018-10: 3 %2018-11: 2.9 %2018-12: 3 %2019-01: 3 %2019-02: 2.8 %2019-03: 2.9 %2019-04: 2.7 %2019-05: 2.6 %2019-06: 2.7 %2019-07: 2.6 %2019-08: 2.5 %2019-09: 2.4 %2019-10: 2.4 %2019-11: 2.5 %2019-12: 2.5 %2020-01: 2.5 %2020-02: 2.6 %2020-03: 2.4 %2020-04: 2.6 %2020-05: 2.6 %2020-06: 2.5 %2020-07: 2.7 %2020-08: 3 %2020-09: 2.7 %2020-10: 2.7 %2020-11: 2.8 %2020-12: 3 %2021-01: 3 %2021-02: 3 %2021-03: 3.1 %2021-04: 3.1 %2021-05: 3.6 %2021-06: 3.5 %2021-07: 3.7 %2021-08: 4 %2021-09: 4.2 %2021-10: 4.2 %2021-11: 4 %2021-12: 4 %2022-01: 3.5 %2022-02: 3.8 %2022-03: 3.7 %2022-04: 3.9 %2022-05: 3.9 %2022-06: 3.6 %2022-07: 3.2 %2022-08: 2.8 %2022-09: 2.9 %2022-10: 3.1 %2022-11: 3 %2022-12: 3 %2023-01: 2.7 %2023-02: 2.7 %2023-03: 2.8 %2023-04: 2.9 %2023-05: 3 %2023-06: 3 %2023-07: 2.9 %2023-08: 2.8 %2023-09: 3 %2023-10: 3 %2023-11: 3 %2023-12: 2.6 %2024-01: 2.4 %2024-02: 2.7 %2024-03: 2.9 %2024-04: 2.8 %2024-05: 2.8 %2024-06: 2.9 %2024-07: 2.3 %2024-08: 2.5 %2024-09: 2.7 %2024-10: 2.5 %2024-11: 2.6 %2024-12: 3 %2025-01: 3 %2025-02: 3 %2025-03: 3 %2025-04: 3.2 %2025-05: 3 %2025-06: 3 %2025-07: 3 %2025-08: 3 %2025-09: 3 %2025-10: 3 %2025-11: 3 %2025-12: 3 %2026-01: 3 %2026-02: 3 %2026-03: 3.1 %2026-04: 3.1 %2026-05: 3.1 %2026-06: 3.3 %2026-07: 3.3 %2026-08: 3.2 %2026-09: 3.3 %22.533.544.52013-062017-122022-062026-092026-09: 3.3 %
%. Source: New York Fed. Retrieved 2026-10-12, published 2026-10-12.
All 160 values
Period%
2026-093.3
2026-083.2
2026-073.3
2026-063.3
2026-053.1
2026-043.1
2026-033.1
2026-023
2026-013
2025-123
2025-113
2025-103
2025-093
2025-083
2025-073
2025-063
2025-053
2025-043.2
2025-033
2025-023
2025-013
2024-123
2024-112.6
2024-102.5
2024-092.7
2024-082.5
2024-072.3
2024-062.9
2024-052.8
2024-042.8
2024-032.9
2024-022.7
2024-012.4
2023-122.6
2023-113
2023-103
2023-093
2023-082.8
2023-072.9
2023-063
2023-053
2023-042.9
2023-032.8
2023-022.7
2023-012.7
2022-123
2022-113
2022-103.1
2022-092.9
2022-082.8
2022-073.2
2022-063.6
2022-053.9
2022-043.9
2022-033.7
2022-023.8
2022-013.5
2021-124
2021-114
2021-104.2
2021-094.2
2021-084
2021-073.7
2021-063.5
2021-053.6
2021-043.1
2021-033.1
2021-023
2021-013
2020-123
2020-112.8
2020-102.7
2020-092.7
2020-083
2020-072.7
2020-062.5
2020-052.6
2020-042.6
2020-032.4
2020-022.6
2020-012.5
2019-122.5
2019-112.5
2019-102.4
2019-092.4
2019-082.5
2019-072.6
2019-062.7
2019-052.6
2019-042.7
2019-032.9
2019-022.8
2019-013
2018-123
2018-112.9
2018-103
2018-093
2018-083
2018-072.9
2018-063
2018-053
2018-043
2018-032.9
2018-022.9
2018-012.8
2017-122.9
2017-112.8
2017-102.8
2017-092.8
2017-082.6
2017-072.7
2017-062.8
2017-052.5
2017-042.9
2017-032.7
2017-023
2017-012.9
2016-122.8
2016-112.7
2016-102.6
2016-092.6
2016-082.7
2016-072.5
2016-062.9
2016-052.7
2016-042.8
2016-032.5
2016-022.6
2016-012.5
2015-122.8
2015-112.7
2015-102.8
2015-092.8
2015-082.9
2015-073
2015-063
2015-053
2015-043
2015-032.9
2015-023
2015-013
2014-123
2014-113
2014-103
2014-093
2014-083.1
2014-073.2
2014-063.3
2014-053.2
2014-043.2
2014-033.4
2014-023.2
2014-013
2013-123.3
2013-113.3
2013-103.2
2013-093.5
2013-083.8
2013-073.3
2013-063.4

Definition

Median inflation rate that US consumers expect for the 12 months running from two to three years ahead, in percent, from the answers to the survey month. Each respondent gives a probability distribution over future inflation; the figure is the median, across respondents, of the mean of each distribution.

Federal Reserve Bank of New York Survey of Consumer Expectations, a monthly online survey of a rotating panel of about 1,300 US household heads. The median of the answers, so half of respondents expect more and half less. These are what consumers expect, not a forecast by the New York Fed. The New York Fed does not endorse this use of the data.

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How to cite

Source: Survey of Consumer Expectations, © 2013-2026 Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY). The SCE data are available without charge at http://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/sce and may be used subject to license terms posted there. FRBNY disclaims any responsibility for this analysis and interpretation of Survey of Consumer Expectations data. Survey of Consumer Expectations data (frbny-sce-data.xlsx), sheet Inflation expectations, median three-year ahead expected inflation rate. https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/interactives/sce/sce/downloads/data/frbny-sce-data.xlsx. Retrieved 2026-10-12. Terms: https://www.newyorkfed.org/privacy/termsofuse.

Citation styles

The publisher is the author. Invokely is named only as the place the figures were read, where a style asks for it.

APA 7

Federal Reserve Bank of New York. (2026). Survey of Consumer Expectations data (frbny-sce-data.xlsx), sheet Inflation expectations, median three-year ahead expected inflation rate (Consumers' expected inflation, three years ahead (median), United States, 2013-06 to 2026-09) [Data set]. Retrieved October 12, 2026, from https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/interactives/sce/sce/downloads/data/frbny-sce-data.xlsx

MLA 9

Survey of Consumer Expectations data (frbny-sce-data.xlsx), sheet Inflation expectations, median three-year ahead expected inflation rate, Consumers' expected inflation, three years ahead (median), United States, 2013-06 to 2026-09. Federal Reserve Bank of New York, 12 Oct. 2026, https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/interactives/sce/sce/downloads/data/frbny-sce-data.xlsx. Invokely, https://invokely.ai/en/consumer-inflation-expectations-3-year/united-states. Accessed 12 Oct. 2026.

Chicago (author-date)

Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 2026. Survey of Consumer Expectations data (frbny-sce-data.xlsx), sheet Inflation expectations, median three-year ahead expected inflation rate. Consumers' expected inflation, three years ahead (median), United States, 2013-06 to 2026-09. Dataset. Accessed October 12, 2026. https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/interactives/sce/sce/downloads/data/frbny-sce-data.xlsx. Also distributed by Invokely, https://invokely.ai/en/consumer-inflation-expectations-3-year/united-states.

Harvard

Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2026) Survey of Consumer Expectations data (frbny-sce-data.xlsx), sheet Inflation expectations, median three-year ahead expected inflation rate, Consumers' expected inflation, three years ahead (median), United States, 2013-06 to 2026-09 [Dataset]. Available at: https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/interactives/sce/sce/downloads/data/frbny-sce-data.xlsx, via Invokely: https://invokely.ai/en/consumer-inflation-expectations-3-year/united-states (Accessed: 12 October 2026).

BibTeX
@misc{federal_consumers_expected_inflation_three_2026,
  author = {{Federal Reserve Bank of New York}},
  title = {{Survey of Consumer Expectations data (frbny-sce-data.xlsx), sheet Inflation expectations, median three-year ahead expected inflation rate: Consumers' expected inflation, three years ahead (median), United States, 2013-06 to 2026-09}},
  year = {2026},
  howpublished = {Data set},
  url = {https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/interactives/sce/sce/downloads/data/frbny-sce-data.xlsx},
  urldate = {2026-10-12},
  note = {Accessed via Invokely, https://invokely.ai/en/consumer-inflation-expectations-3-year/united-states. Publisher attribution: Source: Survey of Consumer Expectations, © 2013-2026 Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY). The SCE data are available without charge at http://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/sce and may be used subject to license terms posted there. FRBNY disclaims any responsibility for this analysis and interpretation of Survey of Consumer Expectations data. Survey of Consumer Expectations data (frbny-sce-data.xlsx), sheet Inflation expectations, median three-year ahead expected inflation rate. https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/interactives/sce/sce/downloads/data/frbny-sce-data.xlsx. Retrieved 2026-10-12. Terms: https://www.newyorkfed.org/privacy/termsofuse.},
}
RIS
TY  - DATA
AU  - Federal Reserve Bank of New York
TI  - Survey of Consumer Expectations data (frbny-sce-data.xlsx), sheet Inflation expectations, median three-year ahead expected inflation rate: Consumers' expected inflation, three years ahead (median), United States, 2013-06 to 2026-09
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/10/12
PB  - Federal Reserve Bank of New York
DB  - Invokely
UR  - https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/interactives/sce/sce/downloads/data/frbny-sce-data.xlsx
L2  - https://invokely.ai/en/consumer-inflation-expectations-3-year/united-states
Y2  - 2026/10/12
N1  - Accessed via Invokely, https://invokely.ai/en/consumer-inflation-expectations-3-year/united-states.
N1  - Publisher attribution: Source: Survey of Consumer Expectations, © 2013-2026 Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY). The SCE data are available without charge at http://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/sce and may be used subject to license terms posted there. FRBNY disclaims any responsibility for this analysis and interpretation of Survey of Consumer Expectations data. Survey of Consumer Expectations data (frbny-sce-data.xlsx), sheet Inflation expectations, median three-year ahead expected inflation rate. https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/interactives/sce/sce/downloads/data/frbny-sce-data.xlsx. Retrieved 2026-10-12. Terms: https://www.newyorkfed.org/privacy/termsofuse.
ER  -
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Questions

What is the consumers' expected inflation, three years ahead (median) in United States?

Consumers' expected inflation, three years ahead (median) in the United States was 3.3% in September 2026, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. That is up 0.2 pts from September 2025.

Where does this figure come from?

Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Survey of Consumer Expectations data (frbny-sce-data.xlsx), sheet Inflation expectations, median three-year ahead expected inflation rate. Retrieved by Invokely on 2026-10-12.

What was the highest consumers' expected inflation, three years ahead (median) in United States?

4.2% in October 2021, the highest value since June 2013 in this series.

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