# Consumers' expected inflation, one year ahead (median)

Median inflation rate that US consumers expect over the next 12 months, in percent, from the answers to the survey month. Each respondent gives a probability distribution over future inflation; the figure is the median, across respondents, of the mean of each distribution (the separate point forecasts are not used).

## Key facts

- Consumers' expected inflation, one year ahead (median) in the United States was 3.9% in September 2026, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Published for 1 places, with figures from June 2013 to September 2026.
- Figures last updated on 2026-10-12.

- Indicator id: `expected_inflation_1y_median`
- Unit: %
- Note: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Survey of Consumer Expectations, a monthly online survey of a rotating panel of about 1,300 US household heads. The median of the answers, so half of respondents expect more and half less. These are what consumers expect, not a forecast by the New York Fed. The New York Fed does not endorse this use of the data.
- Web page: https://invokely.ai/en/consumer-inflation-expectations-1-year
- API: https://invokely.ai/api/v1/indicators/expected_inflation_1y_median

## Latest figures

| Place | Period | % | Source |
|---|---|---:|---|
| United States | 2026-09 | 3.9 | Source: Survey of Consumer Expectations, © 2013-2026 Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY). The SCE data are available without charge at http://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/sce and may be used subject to license terms posted there. FRBNY disclaims any responsibility for this analysis and interpretation of Survey of Consumer Expectations data. Survey of Consumer Expectations data (frbny-sce-data.xlsx), sheet Inflation expectations, median one-year ahead expected inflation rate. https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/interactives/sce/sce/downloads/data/frbny-sce-data.xlsx. Retrieved 2026-10-12. Terms: https://www.newyorkfed.org/privacy/termsofuse. |